Politics: Balancing act gone wrong

The China-Japan flare-up has singed Singapore. Earlier this month, Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s prime minister, told her Parliament that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could trigger a Japanese response. Takaichi framed it as “survival”, a term that unlocks legal grounds for overseas military deployment. Had a moderate uttered them, the words still would have caused a row; hardliner Takaichi has a penchant for revisionist world war two history making light of Japan’s crimes in China and South Korea. The diplomatic storm was expected. Beijing hauled up Japan’s ambassador, slapped a ban on seafood imports (Taiwan swooped), warned tourists and students off Japan, and sent warships close to Japanese territory. China’s envoy in Tokyo posted, then deleted, a lurid, if baffling, X post: “The dirty neck that sticks itself in must be cut off.” 

Lawrence Wong, prime minister, was asked about the fracas at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. “We all want stability in Asia,” he said placidly, before waxing eloquent about how South-east Asia had overcome its own trauma of Japanese occupation. So loving is the relationship now, he said, that Japan is the region’s most trusted big trading power. The online Sinosphere, seemingly reading this as a stony “Get over it” to China, lit up with fury: “China has been too good to Singapore,” said one malcontent. “Singapore is a running dog of the United States” said one more in a paroxysm of creativity. Others pejoratively referred to Singapore as “Po Country”, casting Singapore as a Chinese vassal. Videos and articles taking potshots at Wong erupted like a ferocious bout of acne across Chinese social media platforms. Some of it was likely rage engineered for clicks; Beijing has made no official comment and probably won’t, given the time that has passed. Still, its tight control on info within the country means such a hostile barrage is unlikely without tacit approval.

Consider too, the larger implications for Singapore’s foreign policy. Recently, Wong has often spoken about an emergent multipolar world—at Bloomberg, he serenaded greater Japanese security presence in South-east Asia (another source of Chinese disaffection, no doubt); adverted to fresh trade alliances; and played up ASEAN’s role in this new geopolitical reality. But he was also at pains to talk about the importance of American leadership; declined to “referee” the recent Trump-Xi summit; and repeatedly towed the One China line. It’s a familiar tightrope for states medium, small, and tiny, made more precarious amidst larger geopolitical shifts. “The old rules no longer apply,” said Wong. “But the new ones have not been written”.