International: Yanked
Even as Donald Trump, US president, takes a machete to entire industries, he has been nothing but bountiful for policy wonks, analysts, bean counters, IR nerds, and the rest of the global commentariat who can barely keep up with the outrages caused by a mabuk White House. The latest imbroglio, the kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro, Venezuelan dictator, has triggered two questions.
First, what’s the aim? Absent a coherent explanation, observers are deducing by elimination. It’s not to “bring democracy” to Venezuela, suffering under Maduro’s brutal dictatorship for over a decade. No Trump administration official has uttered the ‘D’ word since the January 3rd brouhaha—just as well, given the upshot of the US’s 21st century democratic endeavours elsewhere.
It’s not to stem the flow of drugs into the US. Trump insists Venezuela under Maduro has become a narco-state flooding the US with cocaine. In truth, Venezuela is a bit player in the trade. It’s not misplaced concern either. Trump recently pardoned a former Honduran president charged with trafficking cocaine that caused “unfathomable destruction” in the US.
Migration fares little better as an explanation. Some eight million, 20-25 percent of the population, have fled Venezuela’s impoverished economy since Maduro took over. But most have moved into neighbouring countries, and whatever northwards illegal migration exists is unlikely to stop just because Maduro is gone. His administration remains in situ.
Oil tempts. There’s history—American firms plundered Venezuelan riches in the 20th century—and there’s apparent opportunity: Venezuela’s state-owned energy firm, the PDVSA, sits on the world’s largest proven oil reserves. But even this rationale beggars credulity. Decades of corruption, neglect and sanctions, some enacted by Trump himself, have hollowed out Venezuelan infrastructure. Restoring extraction to its 1990s peak would require billions of dollars and years of effort. Perhaps, as Bloomberg suggested, Trump’s aim is longer-term dominance—to control so much supply that it can wage war on friend and foe without being susceptible to market pressures. Or perhaps, as Vox wrote, Trump simply “likes the general concept of pillaging conquered lands.”
The second question is what this means for everyone else. Here, the possibilities are endlessly terrifying. Could Venezuela be the preview to an invasion of Greenland, which squats over untold mineral wealth, including the rare earths that China has used as leverage against US pressure? Once unfathomable, it’s now being spoken about widely, including by the Danish PM herself.
Meanwhile, does China itself now have licence to invade Taiwan? Absolutely, say the best. Absurd, counter the brightest, including Singapore’s Bilahari Kausikan. As analysts gambol in the field of big power possibilities, middle and small powers are reduced to bleating out pleas: Singapore, along with other ASEAN nations, has urged restraint; the EU is “following the situation closely”; and India is “concerned”. To be clear, no tears should be wasted on Maduro and indeed, millions of expat Venezuelans have cheered his removal. But perhaps a nostalgic glass could be raised in memory of a saner, more considered world order now clearly past.
